LESSON 1 THE COMPETENCE VERSUS DEVIANCE HYPOTHESIS
Well, it's not actually a hypothesis. I've been around long enough now to know this is a reality:
"The more competencies you have as an individual, the more deviance in you will be tolerated by society"
What???
I could talk for hours to you about this but it would be wasted I can see. Essentially it means you should concentrate your life around the skills and attributes that YOU have, that not EVERYBODY has, but is NEEDED and WANTED by OTHERS (i.e. Competence). If you are good at maths, focus on that; if you are good at predicting events, go with that; if you are good at art or running or music, go with that and develop the skill further. DONT focus on your DEVIANCE (what you fail to do well, or can't do, or things that bring you negative attention).
A good punter in life will invariably utilize the talents he or she possesses. If you are not good with basic stats then don't try using the Don Scott ratings method. Find an approach that suits your competence (skills or attributes that you have, that not everybody has, but is wanted and needed by others).
Shouldn't I practice things I'm not good at??
NO! Not if you are going to then neglect your competence. It makes no sense. The world NEEDS you and your COMPETENCE. it doesn't want you focusing on what your not good at!
So.....if I'm good at maths at school but no good at English I should focus on Maths???
Now you're getting it!! The more competence you can show the more deviance will be tolerated in you by society in general. Competence gives you access to the community, it gives you contacts and it gives you QUALITY OF LIFE (regardless of your deviance)
What do you mean "deviance"??
DEVIANCE is anything that brings you negative attention. It might be getting caught picking your nose, it might be some strange behaviour, your appearance or your inability to complete basic life tasks. Without competence, deviance can be devastating, but WITH competence, deviance can be almost irrelevant.
What has this stuff got to do with me making money??
Geez - you need to go back and read Lesson One again! HOWEVER, please focus your punting approaches around your competence as an individual. If you think you are good at mystical predicting, then focus your strategies around 'feel' and whatever you use to predict the future. If you are strong at stats USE that competence. If you can read animal behaviour USE that skill. If you can READ trainers body behaviour USE that competence (not that they are good judges). Punting is about getting an edge in value via an edge in approach, not following the crowd.
PLEASE REMEMBER IN EVERYTHING YOU DO AND WHEN EDUCATING YOUR CHILDREN: FOCUS ON YOUR COMPETENCE..WHAT YOU DO WELL...THEN DO IT BETTER AND BETTER....YOU HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO YOUR COMMUNITY TO USE THAT SKILL OR ATTRIBUTE. DON'T WASTE YOUR TIME FOCUSING ON DEVIANCE
LESSON 2 SLOWING DOWN!
This is REALLY tough in todays world, but if you can just practice it the world of punting is yours. I wont go into the details of why as I'm not sure you've grasped lessons 1 & 2 yet so just follow me blindly for now. I want you to do this:
1. Find a task you do either every day or a few times a week and slow it down 5 fold
2. Ok - you go and get the paper every Sunday morning and the walk takes you 20 mins. I want you to do it next Sunday and take the same route but take 100 mins! It might be your walk to work which takes 30 mins....do it but take 150 mins
3. Do this 5 fold trick twice a week for 3 months (less than 1% of people will do it so i don't hold much hope)
4. When taking your stroll 5 times slower use your time to check the guttering, the houses, the smells, the leaves on the ground, the insects. Where are the ants nests? Are they active? Is it going to rain? What birds are about? Why are Mrs Smiths blinds still closed? Say hello to old Bart. SLOW.
The best punters in the world are experts at SLOW! It needs practice. Experience in SLOW gives you respect for the world, gives you patience and makes you LESS likely to make impulsive errors. Some other hints on goal setting follow:
A] Choose the mountain (goal) you want to climb: don’t pay attention to what other people say, such as "that one’s more beautiful" or "this one’s easier". You’ll be spending lots of energy and enthusiasm to reach your objective, so you’re the only one responsible and you should be sure of what you’re doing.
B] Know how to get close to it: mountains are often seen from far off – beautiful, interesting, full of challenges. But what happens when we try to draw closer? Roads run all around them, flowers grow between you and your objective, what seemed so clear on the map is tough in real life. So try all the paths and all the tracks until eventually one day you’re standing in front of the top that you yearn to reach.
C] Learn from someone who has already been up there: no matter how unique you feel, there is always someone who has had the same dream before you and ended up leaving marks that can make your journey easier; places to hang the rope, trails, broken branches to make the walking easier. The climb is yours, so is the responsibility, but don’t forget that the experience of others can help a lot. Just because they have been there does NOT make them better than you.
D] When seen up close, dangers are controllable: when you begin to climb the mountain of your dreams, pay attention to the surroundings. There are cliffs, of course. There are almost imperceptible cracks in the mountain rock. There are stones so polished by storms that they have become as slippery as ice. But if you know where you are placing each footstep, you will notice the traps and how to get around them. Practice being SLOW again!
E] The landscape changes, so enjoy it: of course, you have to have an objective in mind – to reach the top. But as you are going up, more things can be seen, and it’s no bother to stop now and again and enjoy the panorama around you. At every meter conquered, you can see a little further, so use this to discover things that you still had not noticed.
F] Respect your body: you can only climb a mountain if you give your body the attention it deserves. You have all the time that life grants you, as long as you walk without demanding what can’t be granted. If you go too fast you will grow tired and give up half way there. Enjoy the scenery, take delight in the cool spring water and the fruit that nature generously offers you, but keep on walking.....slowly.
G] Respect your soul: don’t keep repeating "I’m going to make it". Your soul already knows that, what it needs is to use the long journey to be able to grow, stretch along the horizon, touch the sky. An obsession does not help you at all to reach your objective, and even ends up taking the pleasure out of the climb (see Gamblers Help). But pay attention: also, don’t keep saying "it’s harder than I thought", because that will make you lose your inner strength.
H] Be prepared to climb one kilometer more: the way up to the top of the mountain is always longer than you think. Don’t fool yourself, the moment will arrive when what seemed so near is still very far. But since you were prepared to go beyond, this is not really a problem.
I] Be happy when you reach the top: cry, clap your hands, shout to the four winds that you did it, let the wind - (the wind is always blowing up there so be bloody careful!)- purify your mind, refresh your tired and sweaty feet, open your eyes, clean the dust from your heart. It feels so good, what was just a dream before, a distant vision, is now part of your life, you did it!
J] Make a promise: now that you have discovered a force that you were not even aware of, tell yourself that from now on you will use this force for the rest of your days. Preferably, also promise to discover another mountain, and set off on another adventure.
PRACTICE GOING SLOW!!! Map out 4 square metres of your backyard. Sit down for 30 mins and study it in minute detail. Smell it, scratch it, dig it up a bit, stare at it, write about it, taste the fucking thing! Work around your garden til you know why and how it works. Its a different perspective that gets you value!
Lesson 3: Pursuers of the Possible V Predictors of the Inevitable
"Im telling you - it doesn't matter what we do it will happen again anyway. " .....does this ring a bell? This is a Predictor of the Inevitable speaking. They state the bleeding obvious, engender apathy, they say "we told you so", use no energy in their life if they can help it, and offer no new solutions. "Been there, done that" sort of people.
To get true value in your punting and in life generally, you need to surround yourself with Pursuers of the Possible and avoid Predictors of the Inevitable. Even though the record for telling the future is not as good as predictors, it is better to test your strength and be wrong than believe in weakness and be right. Anyone that has lived knows the Predictors in their lives. Most of us at some stage become Predictors of the Inevitable when we age so if you are 40+ Be warned! . Become aware of when you slip into this mode and seek to become a Pursuer. Surround yourself with Pursuers whilst you still actively listen to the Predictors. Within a week you will inwardly smile at the Predictors statements and move forward with ease.
LESSON 4 MISTAKES & PROFIT
Mistakes are the portals of discovery.
James Joyce - Irish author (1882 - 1941)
When everybody thinks alike, Everyone is likely to be wrong
Losers think of selecting the winner and beating a race. Professionals think of betting for value and beating the races
Never succumb to anyone who just wants to let you know what you are doing will never work as they are Predictors of the Inevitable
Don’t fall foul of the favourite/longshot bias i.e. Horses with short odds (i.e., favorites) tend to win even more frequently than indicated by the final market odds, while horses with long odds (i.e., longshots) win less. So, don’t underestimate the chances of preferred contenders and overestimate the changes of marginal contenders. STOP looking for the big outsider and focus on VALUE
The best handicapping literature in the world are your own records....keep track and don't wank yourself!
The crowd is smart … so let them do the handicapping and analyse them...then look for the opportunity
The difference between success and failure is small. Therefore you need to continually work to maintain your edge and continually work to improve your performance.
Successful punters think in terms of chances., not fancies and certainties. They try to assess the true chance of a horse in a race and bet on the basis of their evaluations.
Value is all-important – not winners. The secret is not getting more heads than tails, its winning more when a coin comes up heads than you lose when it’s tails
Common sense dictates that you cannot outsmart the public if you are handicapping with the same information and methods as the public
The successful punter never allows items of news, "whispers" or thoughts of others override his train of thought when assessing a race’s runners for betting purposes
DON"T follow the market movers - following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.
If you want to make money … big money … do what nobody else is doing
To be a winner, one must know or perceive things which the public must not grasp. If there is no special insight then there will be no special odds, no bargains, no overlays; the more that information is used by the public, the less it pays off at the bookies
To be successful you’ve got to have had some failures in your career - - otherwise you have probably been too conservative
Picking winners is easy. Beating the odds is not. There are thousands of 'tipsters' out there that strike at 50% but still make a loss.
In order to make money betting on sports, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public.
2% of punters make regular annual profits.....60% say they do....most punters are liars
Almost all punters using commercially paid for systems still lose money....be warned! Even with great tipping results and staking methods recommended, human nature takes over and "off goes the punters head"
Lesson 5...Don't Bet!
What?...Isn't this what the site is all about?
Well,,....no
Huh?
This website is about having fun and making money
Yeah...so we bet!
Yes...we bet...BUT...the MOST important lesson and learning is knowing when NOT TO BET and this is most of the time. The Tajodds website avoids the dangerous or risky races where there are toomany unknown factors like horses coming off wet track from, first up or second up form, or where many runners have suffered checks or wide running so it is hard to assess their chances. We also avoid races where we assess too many chances.
Yeah, Yeah...heard it all before! Be selective etc etc etc
You hear but you don't act dimwit. You decide to stick only with the Ace Tip but then you see the Biggest Value Horse making money and you jump ship....then you follow Deano...then a mate who has a maiden in at Geelong. You just don't learn do you?
But you're no fun!
Yes I am ....see...I can smile! Just TRY something and stick with it for once! ...or are you addicted??? If you NEED more action...employ it! Make some rules for selections. Here is an example:
1. Do your own form however you do it...I don't care if it is on names, colours, number patterns ...whatever...but have some ownership
2. Select a few horses you like based ONLY on your assumptions
3. Filter these by using a quality rater (e.g. Tajodds or Expertform). If Tajodds doesn't rate them a chance then wipe them
4. Set a price you are prepared to take for your bet or use the Tajodds price
5. Back your horses with 2.5 % of a REAL bank. If you only have $100 that is $2.50 folks! I mean it! Don't pretend coz even the Ace Tip who has increased the bank over 1000% has had a run of outs of 17 in the last year! Be Warned!
6. This point is too tough for you I know. Stick with your rules for 12 months
7. Do it today. Draw up your rules, monitor your bets, set up your separate bank account, avoid the tips even ours! Don't just try...DO IT! If you need action , employ it , but with good rules.
8. DON"T bet if you can't get your price! I know it is annoying when your selection wins and you opted out but this rule is vital. We often rate horses well on top that also become our LAY OF THE DAY because they are far too short in the market. They move from horses to invest on to horses to avoid! NEVER just bet on selections or tips...make sure you set a minimum price you are willing to take.
9. NEVER bet under even money ($2.00)
LESSON 5 - 20 WORDS OF WISDOM
20 Words of Wisdom come from making mistakes and having success and watching and knowing some of the best punters in the land, and some who thought they were and are now broke.
1. DON"T be like a sheep and follow the money. IGNORE the market movers and stick to your decision and facts. 90% of horses that win races drift in the market and you end up with better value.
2. NEVER bet on heavy tracks, but more importantly NEVER bet when tracks are deteriorating or slippery. Horses hate it and form goes out the window.
3. Leave maiden horses alone. Horses are herd animals and some just never want to win despite their ability.
4. Don't bet on horses first up. Even the trainers don't really know how they will go fresh against fitter opposition.
5. Beware of 'systems' that just list rules to follow. These have usually been put together based on history that doesn't repeat (at least whilst you use it!)
6. If you bet for fun only, be prepared to lose your investment and consider it entertainment
7. If you bet for profit you need a business plan, high discipline and sound tools (selection and staking methods)
8. Nearly all punters lose because of poor staking consistency, lack of a bank, and faith in their method during runs of outs. The Ace Tip is the best selection tip in Australia, but it can have a run of outs like any other (e.g.16 recently) but still averages >25% winners at $6.
9. Use speed maps to find which horses can lead off a moderate pace and give these horses a big bonus when doing your form.
10. Some jockeys actually ride better from a wide draw (e.g. B Rawiller). Give these horses a bonus if drawn wide.
11. Some jockeys love to lead and rate their horses (e.g. Gauci). Use the speed maps to find if their horses can lead off a moderate pace and allocate a big bonus if so.
12. Don't back favourites in Class 1 races if they have just come off a good maiden win. They nearly always represent poor value.
13. Don't bet on horses under $2.00 even if you or Tajodds has rated them shorter. Over many years of Australian racing these horses represent poor betting value.
14. Zabeel 3yo fillies over 1400 are well worth a look
15. Zabeel horses jumping from 1400 to 2000 or further can improve much more than other breeds in general. We often allocate 6kg improvement with success.
16. Weight can stop a train, but it stops classy horses less than average horses. The high class horse has the ability to carry weights more efficiently, so don't get stuck in pure handicapping mode and miss the best horse in the race.
17. Barriers are not as important as trainers and punters think they are. After many years of asessing and checking results, it is the position in running that is important and barrier advantage/disadvantage is related to that position.
18. Never chase your losses, or use suicidal plans where you increase bets until you win. That is the worst staking method of all and causes suicide! NEVER increase bets just because you had a win, unless it is part of your long term plan and based on a % of your bank
19. Don't listen to jockeys or owners as they are the worst judges
20. Don't risk heavy investment on a horse unless the jockey is very competent
LESSON 6: THE FAVOUR BANK
This is the hardest lesson of all to learn. Punting is not about money! Money in and of itself has NO VALUE. It is what you can buy or what you receive that may or may not have value, and I don't mean value in dollar terms! A VERY old concept that holds true is that of the FAVOUR BANK.
Did you ever do anyone a FAVOUR? Of course you have! If you think really hard, you will see that you actually gained from theis favour, probably much more than you could ever possibly LOSE from giving the FAVOUR. Our minds are stuck in a false paradigm that when we GIVE we LOSE something, but this is simply not true. When you give a FAVOUR (join LIONS, help a mate, do meals on wheels for the elderly, have a cup of tea with someone lonely) you build your FAVOUR bank.
Let me explain a bit more in a discussion with YOU:
'What is this the Favour Bank?"
'You know. Everyone knows.'
'Possibly, but I still haven't quite grasped what you're saying.'
'It was an American writer who first mentioned it. It's the most powerful bank in the world, and you'll find it in every sphere of life.'
'Yes but I come from a country without a literary tradition and very mixed culture. What favours could I do for anyone?'
'That doesn't matter in the least. Let me give you an example: I know you are an up-and-coming punter in life and that, one day, you'll be very influential. I know this because, like you, I too was once ambitious, independent, honest. I no longer have the energy I once had, but I want to help you because I can't or don't want to grind to a halt just yet. I'm not dreaming about retirement, I'm still dreaming about the fascinating struggle that is life.
I start making deposits in your account - not cash deposits, you understand, but contacts. I introduce you to such and such a person, I arrange certain deals, as long as they're legal. You know that you owe me something, but I never ask you for anything.'
'And then one day...'
'Exactly. One day, I'll ask you for a favour and you could, of course, say "No", but you're conscious of being in my debt. You do what I ask, I continue to help you, and other people see that you're a decent, loyal sort of person and so they too make deposits in your account = always in the form of contacts, because this world is made up of contacts and nothing else. They too will one day ask you for a favour, and you will respect and help the people who have helped you, and, in time, you'll have spread your net worldwide, you'll know everyone you need to know and your influence will keep on growing.'
'I could refuse to do what you ask me to do.'
'You could. The Favour Bank is a risky investment, just like any other bank. You refuse to grant the favour I asked you, in the belief that I helped you because you deserved to be helped, because you're the best and everyone should automatically recognise your talent. Fine, I say thank you very much and ask someone else into whose account I've also made various deposits; but from then on, everyone knows, without me having to say a word, that you are not to be trusted.
You'll grow only half as much as you could have grown, and certainly not as much as you would have liked to. At a certain point, your life will decline, you have got halfway, but not all the way, you are half-happy and half-sad, neither frustrated nor fulfilled. You're neither cold or hot, you're lukewarm, and as an evangelist in some holy book says: "Lukewarm things are not pleasing to the palate."'
The first lesson in becoming a successful punter is about getting VALUE in life. It is a simple philosophy but THE most powerful tool on earth. Build your contacts by doing FAVOURS. Your FAVOURS will automatically lead to a fuller life and your FAVOUR BANK builds rapidly and before you know it this BANK is very influential. You can give parts of this bank away and your bank will just grow, it overflows, it makes you very rich.
Rich????
You still don't get it do you? Come back and read this a few times. Decide on doing some favours for others who may be in need this next month, then come back and read Lesson One.
LESSON 7 FERTILE FIELDS
Making the field fertile - the Least Restrictive Alternative
The Zen master entrusted the disciple with looking after the rice paddy. In the first year, the disciple watched to make sure that the necessary water was never missing; the rice grew strong and the harvest was good.
In the second year, he had the idea of adding a little fertiliser, the rice grew fast and the harvest was bigger.
In the third year, he used more fertiliser. The harvest was still bigger, but the rice sprouted small and lacklustre.
- If you continue increasing the amount of manure, you will have nothing worth having next year – said the master.
"You strengthen someone when you help a little. But you weaken someone if you help a lot."
Remember, that when punting or investing, discipline is important, but don't be led blindly down the garden path. I can feed you so much manure, but essentially you must place your own experiences to work. Use good information but then put your own creative flair to projects. Create OWNERSHIP as this creates self PRIDE and is MUCH more likely to lead to your success.