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Tajodds Starts on the Caulfield Cup
The first task is to find some horses that historically struggle to place in the big event.
Delete horses at over 7yo
Give a bonus to horses drawn between 3 and 14 barriers
Delete horses in the market >$16.00
Delete horses with more than 4 runs this prep
Give a bonus to horses with saddle cloths 1 to 8
Prefer horses on pace (no leading)to midfield in pace analysis
We then start the fun by finding the horses expected peak run at this start and balancing off the weight they must carry over the limit.
Next we refine the ratings via likely pace analysis (risky), jockeys, going, weather (mares), consistency etc.
Next, we compare our price with the market to find any value
Essentially I am looking for an improving stayer (beats the handicap), < 8yo, saddle cloth 1 to 12, races on pace to midfield, from barriers 3 to 14, is < $16 in current market and has had less than 5 runs this prep = Ventura Storm, Humidor and Bonneval. I don't like the barrier 2 for the fav Johannes vermeer